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Notes from the desk
A weekly journal of what's moving the watchlist, where the macro tape is turning, and the catalysts on deck. Covering the week of —. Last revised —.
AI & SemiconductorsBig Tech MegacapsBTC + ETHMacro & Rates
Today's Lead
Today's lead loads when the morning refresh runs.
The tape
Where indexes, rates, oil and crypto closed; pull a live quote before you act on any of it.
The macro pulse · a directional read; tap any tile for the whyloading…
Macro tiles will load from the Worker shortly…
The book
Holdings, weights, and rolling returns. Stays local in this browser — nothing uploaded.
Enter tickers like NVDA · AAPL · BTC · ETH with shares and average cost. Crypto is priced live automatically;
stocks need a free quotes key for live prices & unrealized P&L. News & catalysts elsewhere in the terminal
filter to whatever sits in The Book.
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The Workshop is a Pro feature
The Workshop holds the live Decision Lab (5-pillar scoring + Moat / Management / Catalyst wizards), the Scout asymmetric-opportunity screener, the Tax Lab, the Fair Value Estimator, and the Real Estate calculator. Sign in with your invited email to unlock.
Invitation only during the beta. Reply to the daily briefing for access.
The workshop
Income-trade math and a fair-value desk for one-off names.
Covered Call Income
Cash-Secured Put Income
Fair Value Estimator
Real Estate
Decision Lab
Tax Lab
Scout
▾Five ideas worth a look · ranked by risk-adjusted annualized yieldclick to expand
▾Five ideas worth a look · ranked by risk-adjusted annualized yieldclick to expand
Enter a ticker (or pick a holding) and fetch fundamentals to begin.
Strategy pickerAnswer 7 quick questions and we'll recommend which real-estate strategies fit your situation.
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How much investable cash do you have?
Do you want monthly income or appreciation?
Are you comfortable using debt?
Active or passive real estate?
What is your time horizon?
Do you need liquidity?
Are you open to managing tenants?
0 of 7 answered
Property & financing
Income & expenses
REITs are publicly-traded real-estate companies (or ETFs holding them) that pay out 90%+ of taxable income as dividends. Fully passive, fully liquid, no tenants — but no leverage and lower yields than direct ownership.
Investment
Return assumptions
Real-estate debt = you lend money to a property owner or developer (directly via syndication, or via debt-focused REITs / funds) and collect interest. Income-focused, no tenants, but typically illiquid and yields scale with default risk.
Position
Risk profile
Short-term rental = furnished property rented nightly on Airbnb / VRBO. Higher gross revenue than long-term rental but heavier operations (cleaning, turnover, guest comms) and higher regulatory + occupancy risk.
Property & financing
Revenue & operations
Value-add = buy distressed, renovate, exit (sell or refi-to-rent). High return potential but high execution risk — costs overrun, market shifts, contractor delays. The 70% rule and ARV discipline matter.
Deal
Financing & costs
Stock Decision LabA guided 8-step workflow that turns a ticker into a documented investment decision — with auto-generated snapshot, multi-pillar scoring, valuation, portfolio fit, and a saved thesis you can audit later.
Style picks
Top names per investment philosophy · pillar scores from Worker data + your saved decisions
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Pick a style above to see the top 10 candidates from the Theme Map (~150 tickers).
Scores blend Worker valuation data with any saved Decision Lab decisions.
8 pillars, each scored 1 (weak) to 5 (strong). Auto-suggested from fundamentals — override any score. Composite weights by your chosen style.
5Valuation & margin of safety
6Portfolio fit
7Decision checklist
Tick what you've actually done. The system won't stop you — but the unticked boxes show up on your saved decision so future-you can audit honest gaps.
0 / 8 checked
8Save decision & set follow-up
Verdict
Claude follow-up promptCopy this to chat to have Claude check your thesis on the follow-up date
Saved decisions0 saved
Score Wizard
Walk through the framework. The score is suggested based on your answers — override after if your judgment differs.
Tax Impact PlannerModel capital-gains tax for any holding in The Book. 2025 federal + NIIT + state brackets; full tax-lot tracking; wash-sale detection.
Setup
Pick holdingClick any holding from The Book to load it
High-Gain ScoutSurface asymmetric opportunities using the 8-factor formula: structural demand + constrained supply + earnings acceleration + operating leverage + upward revisions + valuation gap + market confirmation − crowding risk. Universe comes from the Theme Map + your holdings.
How to read the Asymmetric Opportunity ScoreFirst time here? Open this once and it'll stay collapsed on future visits.
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What it is
The Asymmetric Opportunity Score (AOS, 0–100) tries to identify stocks where the upside-to-downside ratio is meaningfully skewed in your favor. It's not a price target or a buy signal — it's a relative rank that highlights setups worth deeper analysis. The formula weights 8 factors that historically precede outsized stock moves: structural sector tailwinds, pricing power, earnings acceleration, operating leverage, durable returns on equity, valuation vs growth, recent price confirmation, and risk penalties for crowded / fragile names.
The 8 factors & weights
1.Structural demand shock+15 maxTicker is in one of the curated themes (AI, GLP-1, nuclear, etc.) — captures secular tailwinds.
2.Constrained supply+10 maxGross margin proxy — high margins = pricing power = limited supply elasticity.
Maximum theoretical positive: +100. Maximum negative drag: −15. Final score clipped to 0–100.
How to interpret the tiers
AOS 80–100EliteMultiple powerful tailwinds converging. Rare — usually short-lived. Worth deep diligence + Decision Lab walk-through.
AOS 65–79StrongSeveral factors aligned with limited drag. Solid candidates for the full 8-step Decision Lab.
AOS 50–64GoodDecent profile with 1–2 weak spots. Watchlist material — check the "Why screens well" + "Risks" lines.
AOS 35–49MixedTradeoffs present. Pass unless you have a specific catalyst or thesis the score doesn't capture.
AOS < 35WeakMultiple red flags. Probably skip. Reasons usually visible in the "Key risks" line.
Best practices
AOS is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always validate with the Decision Lab + Fair Value Estimator before sizing a position.
Re-scan periodically. Scores shift with price action (factor #7), earnings (factor #3), and revisions. Use the "↻ Re-scan all" button on your watchlist weekly.
High AOS ≠ low risk. The 15-point fragility penalty captures volatility + cap-size risk but can't measure execution risk on emerging stories. Elite small-caps usually carry the most execution risk.
Compare within a theme, not across. A theme like Cybersecurity will have systematically lower margins than Software-only — comparing across themes mixes apples and oranges. Filter by theme first.
Crypto-adjacent names are imperfect. The Worker doesn't return fundamentals for COIN/MSTR/MARA-style names; AOS may be artificially low. Use the Decision Lab manually for these.
Save 5–10 candidates max. The watchlist is for high-conviction follow-ups, not a screening dumping ground. Re-scan deltas matter more with a focused list.
You can always reopen this guide by clicking the header.
Quick start
Setup
Pick a theme & click run. Or pick All themes to scan the whole universe.
Watchlist · saved candidates
0 saved
What's loud
A quick listen to the social chatter — StockTwits and Reddit, lightly weighted.
Loudest right nowcache empty
Top hype scores from your holdings, watchlist, and key megacaps. Loading on first visit…
Currents
Where the narratives are in their lifecycle, and how much of my book sits in each.
Stage and exposure are LLM judgments corroborated by Google-search trend — discovery & decision-support, not signals. Second-order names you don't hold are research ideas, not recommendations.
This week's margin
What moved, and how the room felt — the price action and the sentiment, side by side.
15 themes · 74 sub-themes · 150+ second-order tickers, fully drillable. Use it to find names adjacent to a thesis you already like. Sign in with your invited email to unlock.
Invitation only during the beta.
Theme map
Discover second-order ideas — pick a theme, drill into its sub-themes.
Pick a theme to explore its structure.
Sources
As cited
Selected references
A note on reading this. The Bullish / Bearish / Mixed tags are my read of the near-term direction, not a recommendation. Treat them as a starting frame, not an answer. On the numbers. Index levels and crypto prices are approximate and drift across sources. Always re-pull a live quote before acting. Earnings dates and macro release times should be reconfirmed against the official calendar the morning of. Not financial advice. These are working notes for my own decisions. They aren't a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and they're not a substitute for a financial advisor. Markets move fast — verify before you trade.