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Notes from the desk
A daily journal of what's moving the watchlist, where the macro tape is turning, and the catalysts on deck. Coverage window — · compiled twice daily · last revised —.
AI & SemiconductorsBig Tech MegacapsBTC + ETHMacro & Rates
What moved, and how the room felt — the price action and the sentiment, side by side.
Weekly Movers
Largest 5-session moves across a 42-name watch universe plus BTC/ETH
News Sentiment
How this edition's feed topics lean — click a slice to open them
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topics
This week's threads
Narrative banners from the build — what the research flagged as live, at risk, or on the calendar
Today's Research Brief
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The book
Holdings, weights, and rolling returns. Stays local in this browser — nothing uploaded.
PORT · HOLDINGS · MARK TO MARKETSORT
+ Add or update a holdingNVDA · AAPL · BTC · ETH
IMPORT · PASTE HOLDINGSTICKER SHARES COST — one per line · CSV, tabs or spaces · a header row is skipped · JSON backups paste too
Performance · value-weighted
Composition
Enter tickers like NVDA · AAPL · BTC · ETH with shares and average cost; add a CASH line so weights and the stress
read reflect what is actually invested. Stocks and ETFs price through the quotes Worker, crypto through CoinGecko. The book lives
only in this browser — use Backup / Import to move it. News, catalysts and the Theme Map elsewhere in the terminal filter to
whatever sits here. Flags below are observations, not advice.
Currents
Where the narratives are in their lifecycle, and how much of my book sits in each.
Stage and exposure are LLM judgments corroborated by Google-search trend — discovery & decision-support, not signals. Second-order names you don't hold are research ideas, not recommendations.
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Theme Map is a Pro feature
20 themes · 98 sub-themes · 200+ second-order tickers, fully drillable. Use it to find names adjacent to a thesis you already like. Sign in with your invited email to unlock.
Invitation only during the beta.
Theme map
Discover second-order ideas — pick a theme, drill into its sub-themes.
Pick a theme to explore its structure.
Purity marks:½ major⅕ partial· minorunmarked = pure play
What's loud
A quick listen to the chatter — StockTwits and Bluesky velocity, plus Hacker News, news volume, and Wikipedia for the mainstream read.
Loudest right nowcache empty
Top hype scores from your holdings, watchlist, and key megacaps. Loading on first visit…
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The Workshop is a Pro feature
The Workshop holds the live Decision Lab (8-pillar scoring seeded from Scout, Moat / Management / Catalyst wizards, graded decisions), the Scout asymmetric-opportunity screener, the Tax Lab, the Fair Value Estimator, and the Real Estate calculator. Sign in with your invited email to unlock.
Invitation only during the beta. Reply to the daily briefing for access.
The workshop
Income-trade math and a fair-value desk for one-off names.
Covered Call Income
Cash-Secured Put Income
Fair Value Estimator
Real Estate
Funnel
Decision Lab
Tax Lab
Allocator
Scout
▾Ideas worth a look · ranked by edge over a realized-vol price, per unit of riskclick to expand
▾Ideas worth a look · ranked by edge over a realized-vol price, per unit of riskclick to expand
Enter a ticker (or pick a holding) and fetch fundamentals to begin.
Strategy pickerAnswer 7 quick questions and we'll recommend which real-estate strategies fit your situation.
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How much investable cash do you have?
Do you want monthly income or appreciation?
Are you comfortable using debt?
Active or passive real estate?
What is your time horizon?
Do you need liquidity?
Are you open to managing tenants?
0 of 7 answered
Property & financing
Income & expenses
REITs are publicly-traded real-estate companies (or ETFs holding them) that pay out 90%+ of taxable income as dividends. Fully passive, fully liquid, no tenants — but no leverage and lower yields than direct ownership.
Investment
Return assumptions
Real-estate debt = you lend money to a property owner or developer (directly via syndication, or via debt-focused REITs / funds) and collect interest. Income-focused, no tenants, but typically illiquid and yields scale with default risk.
Position
Risk profile
Short-term rental = furnished property rented nightly on Airbnb / VRBO. Higher gross revenue than long-term rental but heavier operations (cleaning, turnover, guest comms) and higher regulatory + occupancy risk.
Property & financing
Revenue & operations
Value-add = buy distressed, renovate, exit (sell or refi-to-rent). High return potential but high execution risk — costs overrun, market shifts, contractor delays. The 70% rule and ARV discipline matter.
Deal
Financing & costs
The most common real-estate decision is not an investment — it is your own shelter. This compares buying the home you would live in against renting the same home and investing the difference. Pre-tax; imputed rent is what the comparison is implicitly pricing (re-1).
The home
The alternative
Decision funnelOne fixed order of questions from the market to a decision: read the regime, keep the themes that clear it, keep the names inside those themes that clear the stock gate, then take the survivors through the Decision Lab. The gates tighten when the regime does, every drop has a written reason, and the build freezes each day's funnel so every stage can be graded.
Stock Decision LabScout finds names. The Lab is where a name becomes a decision: read the same data Scout scored, override its pillars with your own judgment, check the fit against the active book, and commit a thesis with levels. Every saved verdict is graded later against the price, SPY and Scout's own pick.
1Read
Your lens sets the pillar weights for the composite — same eight pillars, different emphasis
2Score
8 pillars, each 1 (weak) to 5 (strong). The numbers Scout can read are pre-filled from its factor breakdown and ringed in gray; Moat and Management start neutral until you score them. Click any number to override — the override is the point.
3Fit
Process check tick what you have actually done — unticked boxes are saved with the decision so the gaps are visible later
0 / 8 checked
4Commit
Verdict
Claude follow-up promptCopy this to chat to have Claude check the thesis on the follow-up date
Your record0 saved
Score Wizard
Walk through the framework. The score is suggested based on your answers — override after if your judgment differs.
Tax Impact PlannerCapital-gains tax on any Real-book holding, lot by lot. 2026 federal brackets (OBBBA-indexed) + NIIT + state; wash-sale check across every book; five ways to plan the same sale. Setup is shared with the Allocator.
Setup
Pick holdingClick any holding from The Book to load it
How this year's savings could be split across tax-advantaged accounts. Fill in the household profile — the employer match is pinned first, then every other account is ranked by what one after-tax dollar becomes at its own horizon relative to the same dollar in a taxable account, for your brackets. Edit any line; inputs stay in this browser. Uses 2026 IRS limits. Educational only — not tax or financial advice.
High-Gain ScoutSurface asymmetric opportunities using the 8-factor formula: structural demand + constrained supply + earnings acceleration + operating leverage + upward revisions + valuation gap + market confirmation − crowding risk. Universe comes from the Theme Map + your holdings.
How to read the Asymmetric Opportunity ScoreFirst time here? Open this once and it'll stay collapsed on future visits.
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What it is
The Asymmetric Opportunity Score (AOS, 0–100) tries to identify stocks where the upside-to-downside ratio is meaningfully skewed in your favor. It's not a price target or a buy signal — it's a relative rank that highlights setups worth deeper analysis. The formula weights 8 factors that historically precede outsized stock moves: structural sector tailwinds, pricing power, earnings acceleration, operating leverage, durable returns on equity, valuation vs growth, recent price confirmation, and risk penalties for crowded / fragile names.
The 8 factors & weights
1.Structural demand shock+15 maxTicker is in one of the curated themes (AI, GLP-1, nuclear, etc.) — captures secular tailwinds.
2.Constrained supply+10 maxGross margin proxy — high margins = pricing power = limited supply elasticity.
Maximum theoretical positive: +100. Maximum negative drag: −15. Final score clipped to 0–100.
How to interpret the tiers
AOS 80–100EliteMultiple powerful tailwinds converging. Rare — usually short-lived. Worth deep diligence + Decision Lab walk-through.
AOS 65–79StrongSeveral factors aligned with limited drag. Solid candidates for the Decision Lab.
AOS 50–64GoodDecent profile with 1–2 weak spots. Watchlist material — check the "Why screens well" + "Risks" lines.
AOS 35–49MixedTradeoffs present. Pass unless you have a specific catalyst or thesis the score doesn't capture.
AOS < 35WeakMultiple red flags. Probably skip. Reasons usually visible in the "Key risks" line.
Best practices
AOS is a starting point, not a buy signal. Always validate with the Decision Lab + Fair Value Estimator before sizing a position.
Re-scan periodically. Scores shift with price action (factor #7), earnings (factor #3), and revisions. Use the "↻ Re-scan all" button on your watchlist weekly.
High AOS ≠ low risk. The 15-point fragility penalty captures volatility + cap-size risk but can't measure execution risk on emerging stories. Elite small-caps usually carry the most execution risk.
Compare within a theme, not across. A theme like Cybersecurity will have systematically lower margins than Software-only — comparing across themes mixes apples and oranges. Filter by theme first.
Crypto-adjacent names are imperfect. The Worker doesn't return fundamentals for COIN/MSTR/MARA-style names; AOS may be artificially low. Use the Decision Lab manually for these.
Save 5–10 candidates max. The watchlist is for high-conviction follow-ups, not a screening dumping ground. Re-scan deltas matter more with a focused list.
You can always reopen this guide by clicking the header.
Quick start
Setup
Pick a theme & click run. Or pick All themes to scan the whole universe (build data first, live only for the gaps).
Watchlist · saved candidates
0 saved
Sources
As cited
Selected references
A note on reading this. The Bullish / Bearish / Mixed tags are my read of the near-term direction, not a recommendation. Treat them as a starting frame, not an answer. On the numbers. Index levels and crypto prices are approximate and drift across sources. Always re-pull a live quote before acting. Earnings dates and macro release times should be reconfirmed against the official calendar the morning of. Not financial advice. These are working notes for my own decisions. They aren't a recommendation to buy or sell anything, and they're not a substitute for a financial advisor. Markets move fast — verify before you trade.