A curriculum in three tiers: what things are (the technology and money foundations), what moves everything (macro, geopolitics, demographics), and what you do about it (the investor’s craft). Every module teaches twice — a beginner tier that assumes nothing and an advanced tier with the mechanics and money flows — and ends the same way: what investors get wrong, and where to see the concept priced live on the dashboard.
New to all of it? Read Tier I in order, then Tier III. Comfortable with the technology? Start at Tier II. Either way, finish with Forecasting & Cycles — it is the method the Outlook below runs on. Progress saves in this browser; switch depth any time.
The Outlook · 8 watchpoints, next 6–12 months
Not predictions — scored scenarios, built the way Track 8 teaches: a falsifiable claim, a probability anchored on base rates, the mechanism, what the market already prices, and the tripwire that would change the number. Every month’s outlook is archived and graded when it matures; the running score is published below, because a forecast that can’t be graded is content, not analysis.
Educational scenario analysis, not investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Probabilities are estimates; the scorecard exists precisely because some of them will be wrong.